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Table 1 Proportion of primary outbreak farms spreading infection to a given number of farms during the first generation of an epidemic (averaged over the period from 1 January 2003 to 31 July 2007) for a disease transmitted by any livestock depending on the length of the infectious period on the primary outbreak farm.

From: Potential for epidemic take-off from the primary outbreak farm via livestock movements

No. of farms in first generation

Proportion of primary outbreak farms causing spread for a given infectious period

 

1 week

2 weeks

4 weeks

1

0.0187

0.0478

0.0782

2

0.0054

0.0176

0.0335

3

0.0026

0.0085

0.0281

4

0.0017

0.0048

0.0124

> 4

0.0028

0.0105

0.0291