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# Table 4 Notation, variable description, and sources of information used to formulate and parameterize a model to assess the risk of FMD exported from Russia

Notation | Variable description | Parameterization | Source of information |
---|---|---|---|

N
| Number of cattle exported from Russia every year | Uniform (\({a}_{y},{b}_{y}\)) | China Industrial Information Network |

y | FMD outbreaks year | NA | Model equations |

\({a}_{y}\) | The minimum number of exported cattle (n) | \(\frac{{S}_{y}}{{P}_{y}}\times {E}_{y}\) | Model equations |

\({b}_{y}\) | The maximum number of exported cattle (n) | \(\frac{{S}_{y}}{{P}_{y}}\times {E}_{y}\) | Model equations |

\({S}_{y}\) | The number of cattle slaughtered (n) | NA | S1 Table |

\({P}_{y}\) | Total beef production in Russia (kt) | NA | S1 Table |

\({E}_{y}\) | Amounts of beef exports from Russia (kt) | NA | S1 Table |

P1
| Probability of occurrence of FMD outbreaks in the Russian surveillance zone | Uniform (\({a}_{1},{b}_{1}\)) | OIE (S2 Table) |

\({a}_{1}\) | The minimum outbreak to total outbreaks over a certain period | minimum outbreak/ total outbreaks | Model equations |

\({\text{b}}_{1}\) | The maximum outbreak to total outbreaks over a certain period | maximum outbreak/ total outbreaks | Model equations |

P2
| Probability of safe cattle with suspected FMD infection FMD in the Russian surveillance zone | Beta (\({{\upalpha }1}_{e},{{\upalpha }2}_{e}\)) | S3 Table |

\({NP}_{e}\) | Number of positive cases detected by Elisa | NA | S3 Table |

\({NT}_{e}\) | Total number of detected animals | NA | S3 Table |

\({{\upalpha }1}_{e}\) | Parameter in beta distribution | \({\text{N}\text{P}}_{e}+1\) | Model equations |

\({{\upalpha }2}_{e}\) | Parameter in beta distribution | \({\text{N}\text{T}}_{e}-{\text{N}\text{P}}_{e}+1\) | Model equations |

P3
| Probability that cattle are not protected after vaccination | Beta (\({{\upalpha }1}_{v},{{\upalpha }2}_{v}\)) | S4 Table |

\({\text{N}\text{P}}_{v}\) | Number of positive cases in vaccinated animals | NA | S4 Table |

\({\text{N}\text{T}}_{v}\) | Total number of vaccinated animals | NA | S4 Table |

\({{\upalpha }1}_{v}\) | Parameter in beta distribution | \({\text{N}\text{P}}_{v}+1\) | Model equations |

\({{\upalpha }2}_{v}\) | Parameter in beta distribution | \({\text{N}\text{T}}_{v}-{\text{N}\text{P}}_{v}+1\) | Model equations |

P4
| Probability of infected cattle not detected by ELISA | Uniform (\({a}_{4},{b}_{4}\)) | Documentation |

\({a}_{4}\) | The minimum probability of infected cattle not detected by ELISA | 1- maximum values diagnostic sensitivity | Model equations |

\({b}_{4}\) | The maximum probability of infected cattle not detected by ELISA | 1- minimum values diagnostic sensitivity | Model equations |