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Table 4 Notation, variable description, and sources of information used to formulate and parameterize a model to assess the risk of FMD exported from Russia

From: Risk assessment and integrated surveillance of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Russia based on Monte Carlo simulation

Notation Variable description Parameterization Source of information
N Number of cattle exported from Russia every year Uniform (\({a}_{y},{b}_{y}\)) China Industrial Information Network
y FMD outbreaks year NA Model equations
\({a}_{y}\) The minimum number of exported cattle (n) \(\frac{{S}_{y}}{{P}_{y}}\times {E}_{y}\) Model equations
\({b}_{y}\) The maximum number of exported cattle (n) \(\frac{{S}_{y}}{{P}_{y}}\times {E}_{y}\) Model equations
\({S}_{y}\) The number of cattle slaughtered (n) NA S1 Table
\({P}_{y}\) Total beef production in Russia (kt) NA S1 Table
\({E}_{y}\) Amounts of beef exports from Russia (kt) NA S1 Table
P1 Probability of occurrence of FMD outbreaks in the Russian surveillance zone Uniform (\({a}_{1},{b}_{1}\)) OIE (S2 Table)
\({a}_{1}\) The minimum outbreak to total outbreaks over a certain period minimum outbreak/ total outbreaks Model equations
\({\text{b}}_{1}\) The maximum outbreak to total outbreaks over a certain period maximum outbreak/ total outbreaks Model equations
P2 Probability of safe cattle with suspected FMD infection FMD in the Russian surveillance zone Beta (\({{\upalpha }1}_{e},{{\upalpha }2}_{e}\)) S3 Table
\({NP}_{e}\) Number of positive cases detected by Elisa NA S3 Table
\({NT}_{e}\) Total number of detected animals NA S3 Table
\({{\upalpha }1}_{e}\) Parameter in beta distribution \({\text{N}\text{P}}_{e}+1\) Model equations
\({{\upalpha }2}_{e}\) Parameter in beta distribution \({\text{N}\text{T}}_{e}-{\text{N}\text{P}}_{e}+1\) Model equations
P3 Probability that cattle are not protected after vaccination Beta (\({{\upalpha }1}_{v},{{\upalpha }2}_{v}\)) S4 Table
\({\text{N}\text{P}}_{v}\) Number of positive cases in vaccinated animals NA S4 Table
\({\text{N}\text{T}}_{v}\) Total number of vaccinated animals NA S4 Table
\({{\upalpha }1}_{v}\) Parameter in beta distribution \({\text{N}\text{P}}_{v}+1\) Model equations
\({{\upalpha }2}_{v}\) Parameter in beta distribution \({\text{N}\text{T}}_{v}-{\text{N}\text{P}}_{v}+1\) Model equations
P4 Probability of infected cattle not detected by ELISA Uniform (\({a}_{4},{b}_{4}\)) Documentation
\({a}_{4}\) The minimum probability of infected cattle not detected by ELISA 1- maximum values diagnostic sensitivity Model equations
\({b}_{4}\) The maximum probability of infected cattle not detected by ELISA 1- minimum values diagnostic sensitivity Model equations