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Table 1 Probability distributions for epidemic duration in different classical swine fever outbreak scenarios in Indiana, USA

From: Estimating the scale of adverse animal welfare consequences of movement restriction and mitigation strategies in a classical swine fever outbreak

Outbreak scenario

Probability distribution

Single-site outbreaka

Cluster 1: Triangle (24, 50, 100)

Cluster 2: Triangle (100, 224, 343)

Probability of cluster 1: Bernoulli (0.3)

Multiple-site outbreak with 4 index premisesb

Triangle (29, 203, 514)

Multiple-site outbreak with 17 index premisesb

Triangle (138, 185, 341)

Multiple-site outbreak with 20 index premisesb

Triangle (142, 187, 440)

Multiple-site outbreak with 26 index premisesb

Triangle (146, 197, 311)

  1. The results were generated from the simulation with 500 iterations using the North American Animal Disease Spread Model
  2. aThe results are for four single-site outbreak scenarios combined
  3. bIndex premises are infected premises when an outbreak starts
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BMC Veterinary Research

ISSN: 1746-6148

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