Table 1 Population and disease parameters used in the model

Badger mortality (yearly)

Badger cubs

30 – 53% ^e

Male ^a

47% (seasonal) ^h

Grouped ^d

50 – 65% ^g

Female ^a

41% (seasonal) ^h

Grouped ^d

50 – 65% ^g

Older than 1year

Cub mortality reduced by 20% to balance badger density

Male ^a

16% (seasonal) ^h

Grouped ^d

30% ^g

Female ^a

12% (seasonal) ^h

Grouped ^d

24% ^g

Fox mortality (yearly)

36 – 53% ^f

Cubs male ^a

53% (seasonal) ⁱ

Grouped ^d

50 – 65% ^g

Cubs female ^a

51% (seasonal) ⁱ

Grouped ^d

50 – 65% ^g

Older than 1year

Male ^a

48% (seasonal) ⁱ

Grouped ^d

40 – 60% ^g

Female ^a

45% (seasonal) ⁱ

Grouped ^d

40 – 60% ^g

Fox litter size

Cubs

4.53 (± 1.54) ⁱ

--

Older than 1 year

4.76 (± 1.53) ⁱ

--

Fox sex ratio (m:f)

0.55 ⁱ

--

Fox: Probability of breeding

Cubs

0.66 ⁱ

--

Older than 1 year

0.77 ⁱ

--

Badger litter size

2.94 (± 0.94) ^h

--

Badger sex ratio (m:f)

0.5 ^h

--

Badger: Probability of breeding

1^st female

0.74 ^h

--

2^nd female

0.37 ^h

--

3^rd female

0.3 ^h

--

Fox dispersal

Dispersal months

October – March ⁱ

--

Dispersal Distance (range)

Males

0.6 – 30.8 (density dependent) ⁱ

--

Females

0.6 – 12.6 ⁱ

--

Badger infection probability ^h

Within group

0.89 ^h

0.8 – 1.0 ^b

20% variation

Between groups

0.8 – 1.2

20% variation

Male - females

0.55 ^h

Grouped ^c

Same sex

0.55 ^h

Grouped ^c

Adult - juveniles

0.19 ^h

Grouped ^c

Fox infection probability

Within home range

0.999 ^j

0.8 – 1

20% variation ^b

Between home ranges

0.8 - 1.1

20% variation ^b

Juveniles in summer

0.329 ^j

Grouped ^c

Males to females in winter

0.912 ^j

Grouped ^c

All other contacts in winter

0.514 ^j

Grouped ^c

In spring

0.122 ^j

Grouped ^c

In summer

0.499 ^j

Grouped ^c

In autumn

0.255 ^j

Grouped ^c

Fox-Badger cross infection

0.04 ^k

0.03 –0.05

20% variation

Badger prob. becoming infectious (rabid)

0.42 ^h

0.3 – 0.5

20% variation

Fox prob. becoming infectious (rabid)

0.42 ⁱ

Grouped ^d