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Table 1 Population and disease parameters used in the model

From: Emergency rabies control in a community of two high-density hosts

Aggregated parameters Standard value Variation in sensitivity analysis Variation in literature
Badger mortality (yearly)
Badger cubs   30 – 53% e  
Male a 47% (seasonal) h Grouped d 50 – 65% g
Female a 41% (seasonal) h Grouped d 50 – 65% g
Older than 1year Cub mortality reduced by 20% to balance badger density
Male a 16% (seasonal) h Grouped d 30% g
Female a 12% (seasonal) h Grouped d 24% g
Fox mortality (yearly) 36 – 53% f  
Cubs male a 53% (seasonal) i Grouped d 50 – 65% g
Cubs female a 51% (seasonal) i Grouped d 50 – 65% g
Older than 1year    
Male a 48% (seasonal) i Grouped d 40 – 60% g
Female a 45% (seasonal) i Grouped d 40 – 60% g
Fox litter size    
Cubs 4.53 (± 1.54) i --  
Older than 1 year 4.76 (± 1.53) i --  
Fox sex ratio (m:f) 0.55 i --  
Fox: Probability of breeding
Cubs 0.66 i --  
Older than 1 year 0.77 i --  
Badger litter size 2.94 (± 0.94) h --  
Badger sex ratio (m:f) 0.5 h --  
Badger: Probability of breeding
1st female 0.74 h --  
2nd female 0.37 h --  
3rd female 0.3 h --  
Fox dispersal    
Dispersal months October – March i --  
Dispersal Distance (range)
Males 0.6 – 30.8 (density dependent) i --  
Females 0.6 – 12.6 i --  
Badger infection probability h
Within group 0.89 h 0.8 – 1.0 b 20% variation
Between groups   0.8 – 1.2 20% variation
Male - females 0.55 h Grouped c  
Same sex 0.55 h Grouped c  
Adult - juveniles 0.19 h Grouped c  
Fox infection probability
Within home range 0.999 j 0.8 – 1 20% variation b
Between home ranges   0.8 - 1.1 20% variation b
Juveniles in summer 0.329 j Grouped c  
Males to females in winter 0.912 j Grouped c  
All other contacts in winter 0.514 j Grouped c  
In spring 0.122 j Grouped c  
In summer 0.499 j Grouped c  
In autumn 0.255 j Grouped c  
Fox-Badger cross infection 0.04 k 0.03 –0.05 20% variation
Badger prob. becoming infectious (rabid) 0.42 h 0.3 – 0.5 20% variation
Fox prob. becoming infectious (rabid) 0.42 i Grouped d  
  1. a Relative seasonality of rates preserved.
  2. b 20% variation intended but limited because parameter would be beyond possible range.
  3. c Varied as group proportional to rate of group parameter.
  4. d Varied as group. Absolute variation range indicated for group parameter.
  5. e Intended 30 – 70% but limitations due to population extinction.
  6. f Intended 30 – 70% but limitations due to minimal seasonal mortality rate and population extinction.
  7. g[44].
  8. h[8] (mortality differs between the first two months of life and older).
  9. i[26] (mortality differs between years one and older, and varies in each month).
  10. j[27].
  11. k see text for derivation of value.