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Table 1 Model parameters.

From: The potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus via dynamic contacts between poultry premises in Great Britain

Parameter Value Source
Incubation period Up to 1 day (shedding after 8 hours, death after one day) I. Brown (pers. comm); [14, 15]
Survival of virus on seed premises Up to15 days [16]
Probability of staff working on multiple premises (Farm size) 0.45 (< 50,000 birds)
0.1 (50,000 to 200,000 birds)
0 (> 200,000 birds)
P. McMullin (pers. comm)
Distance travelled by staff between premises Up to 35 km P McMullin (pers. comm.)
Frequency of vet visits Every 50 days P. McMullin (pers. comm)
Frequency of manager visits Every 10 days (non-layer farms)
Every 50 days (layer farms)
P. McMullin (pers. comm)
Probability catching team catches species (multi species farms only) 0.7 Chicken
0.12 Turkey
0.16 Duck/goose
0.01 Other
Calculated from catching company data, where species type available
Probability of catching team, slaughterhouse and owner transmission 0 to 0.2, in steps of 0.01, with additional parameter at 0.001 added. N/A
Time to detection 2 to 6 days (15 days later for ducks/geese) Extrapolation from [1517]
  1. Parameter values for the network simulation model of avian influenza transmission in Great Britain