Table 5 Input variables and sources of PPRV model in live sheep exported from India
From: Epidemiologic and import risk analysis of Peste des petits ruminants between 2010 and 2018 in India
Notation | Definition | Parameterization | Values | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
P1i | Probability of PPR infection in India | P1i = 1-e(−t×λ) | P1 = 1-e(−1191×108) | WOAH |
P2i | Probability of each sheep infected with PPRV | (P2ia + P2ib)/2 | / | / |
P2ia | Prevalence of sheep | / | Uniform (0.0055, 0.6305) | [31] |
P2ib | Prevalence of goats | / | Uniform (0.0559, 0.6211) | [32] |
P3i | Possibility of undetected in the pre-shipment inspection | 1-P3i’ | / | / |
P3i’ | Sensitivity of ELISA | / | Uniform (0.8728, 0.9703) | [33] |
P4i | Survival rate of sheep in transit | 1-P4i’ | / | / |
P4i’ | Mortality of sheep in transit | Pert (0.0013, 0.0086, 0.0553) | FAO | |
P5i | Probability of undetected PPRV infection at destination | / | P3 × (1- P5ia) | / |
P5ia | The mortality rate of sick animals | / | Uniform (0.35, 0.6) | [10] |
P6i | Probability of infected animals undetected in quarantine | 1-(Mi × Ni) | / | / |
Mi | Possibility of quarantine | / | Beta (42.11, 1.83) | [34] |
Ni | Possibility of detection during quarantine | / | Beta (15.03, 2.55) | [34] |
q | Export volume of live sheep in India | / | Triang (147,649, 147,756,935,999) | FAO |
Pi | Probability of PPRV infection in live sheep exported from India | P1i*P2i*P3i*P4i *P5i*P6i | / | / |
Pq | Probability of at least one sheep infected with PPRV exported from India | 1-(1-Pi)q | / | / |
Ny | Number of infected sheep exported per year | / | Binomial (q, Pi) | / |