Table 1 Disease state duration parameter estimates for moderately virulent ASF strains based on data from de Carvalho Ferreira et al. (2013)
Parameter | Distribution details | Value |
|---|---|---|
Latently infected period | Gamma(shape=13.299, scale=0.3384482) | 4.501(95% P.I.,2.417,7.223) days |
Infectious period for recovered | Gamma(shape=55.42012, scale= 0.7950162) | 44.06(95% P.I.,33.23,56.394) days |
Infectious period for dead | Gamma(shape =9.632, scale =0.862) | 8.306(95% P.I.,3.918,14.314) days |
Time to onset of severe clinical signs | Gamma(shape =41.969, scale =0.259) | 10.868(95% P.I,7.832,14.394) days |
Time to onset of mild clinical signs | Gamma(shape =26.257, scale =0.214) | 5.614(95% P.I.,3.675,7.956) days |
Duration of mild clinical signs | Gamma(shape =3.418,scale =3.2) | 10.936(95% P.I.,2.58,25.212) days |
Duration of severe clinical signs (severe) | Gamma(shape =1.027, scale =6.515) | 6.694(95% P.I.,0.184,24.408) days |
Fraction of pigs with severe clinical signs | Beta (22,10) | 0.688 (95 % P.I., 0.52,0.833) |
Fraction of pigs dying due ASF | Beta (13,19) | 0.407(95 % P.I., 0.24,0.57) |