Table 2 Parameter estimates for a quantitative risk assessment of (HPAI-H5N1) in backyard poultry (B2). For all the parameter estimates, we used the best-fit probability distributions
Parameter notation | Parameter description | Best-fit probability distributions | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | Â | Function | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Std Dev | 5% | 95% |
N | Total number of poultry in Menoufia, Egypt | RiskPareto (0.72898,3,749,375.0) | 3,749,375 | 52,857,042 | 23,511,705 | 22,775,444 | 3,749,374 | 52,857,042 |
P | The probability of HPAI-H5N1 prevalence rates in poultry in each epidemic wave | RiskExtValueMin (0.44313,0.11949) | 0.08253 | 0.55095 | 0.36933 | 0.17576 | 0.08253 | 0.55095 |
P1 | The probability of HPAI-H5N1 Prevalence rates in Backyard poultry (B2) in each EW | RiskUniform (−0.0058329,0.49715) | 0.06602 | 0.42529 | 0.26682 | 0.1612 | 0.06602 | 0.42529 |
P2 | The probability of HPAI-H5N1 Prevalence rates in domestic chicken in backyard | RiskUniform (−0.023407,0.25598) | 0.01651 | 0.21606 | 0.10608 | 0.08142 | 0.01651 | 0.21606 |
P3 | The probability of HPAI-H5N1 Prevalence rates in mixed poultry in backyard | RiskUniform (−0.032087,0.21864) | 0.00373 | 0.18282 | 0.09288 | 0.08264 | 0.00373 | 0.18282 |
P4 | The probability of HPAI-H5N1 Prevalence rates in reservoir poultry in backyard | RiskExpon (0.067856, Risk Shift (−0.011309)) | 0 | 0.21171 | 0.06786 | 0.08028 | 0 | 0.21171 |
P5a | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in domestic chicken due to detection by passive surveillance in backyard | RiskUniform (−0.010885,0.090071) | 0.003537 | 0.075648 | 0.036997 | 0.031555 | 0.003537 | 0.075648 |
P5 (1-P5a) | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in domestic chicken due to failure in detection by passive surveillance in backyard | Â | ||||||
P6a | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in domestic chicken due to detection by active surveillance in backyard | RiskPareto (0.76486,0.012968) | 0.01297 | 0.1662 | 0.06909 | 0.0619 | 0.01297 | 0.1662 |
P6 (1-P6a) | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in domestic chicken due to failure in detection by active surveillance in backyard | Â | ||||||
P7a | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in mixed poultry due to detection by passive surveillance in backyard | RiskPareto (0.51481,0.0023579) | 0.002358 | 0.099722 | 0.03821 | 0.040182 | 0.002358 | 0.099722 |
P7 (1-P7a) | `The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in mixed poultry due to failure in detection by passive surveillance in backyard | Â | ||||||
P8a | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in mixed poultry due to detection by active surveillance in backyard | RiskUniform (−0.023198,0.13919) | 0 | 0.11599 | 0.05467 | 0.04632 | 0 | 0.11599 |
P8 (1-P8a) | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in mixed poultry due to failure in detection by active surveillance in backyard | Â | ||||||
P9a | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in reservoir poultry due to detection by passive surveillance in backyard | RiskExpon (0.0080041, RiskShift (− 0.0013340)) | 0 | 0.034822 | 0.008004 | 0.013668 | 0 | 0.034822 |
P9 (1-P9a) | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in reservoir poultry due to failure in detection by passive surveillance in backyard | Â | ||||||
P10a | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in reservoir poultry due to detection by active surveillance in backyard | RiskExpon (0.059852, RiskShift (−0.0099753)) | 0 | 0.21171 | 0.05985 | 0.07899 | 0 | 0.21171 |
P10 (1-P10a) | The probability of H5N1 Prevalence rates in reservoir poultry due to failure in detection by active surveillance in backyard | Â | ||||||