Table 1 Parameter estimates for a quantitative risk assessment of HPAI-H5N1 in poultry farms (B1) in Menoufia, Egypt. For all the parameter estimates, we used the best-fit probability distributions
Parameter notation | Parameter description | Best-fit probability distributions | Minimum | Maximum | Mean | Std Dev | 5% | 95% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N | Total number of poultry in Menoufia, Egypt | RiskPareto (0.72898,3,749,375.0) | 3,749,375 | 52,857,042 | 23,511,705 | 22,775,444 | 3,749,374 | 52,857,042 |
P | The probability of HPAI-H5N1 prevalence rates in poultry in each epidemic wave | RiskExtValueMin (0.44313,0.11949) | 0.08253 | 0.55095 | 0.36933 | 0.17576 | 0.08253 | 0.55095 |
P1 | The probability of HPAI-H5N1 prevalence rates in poultry that were vaccinated in farms | RiskLaplace (0.10269,0.053750) | 0.01651 | 0.1791 | 0.0988 | 0.05487 | 0.01651 | 0.1791 |
P2 (1-P1) | The probability of HPAI H5N1 prevalence rates in birds that missed vaccination in farm | Â | ||||||
P3a | The probability of HPAI-H5N1 prevalence rates in poultry due to detection by passive surveillance in farms | RiskExpon(0.024769, RiskShift(−0.0041281)) | 0 | 0.066481 | 0.024769 | 0.026972 | 0 | 0.066481 |
P3 (1-P3a) | The probability of HPAI H5N1 prevalence rates in birds due to failure in detection by passive surveillance in farm | Â | ||||||
P4a | The probability of HPAI-H5N1 prevalence rates in poultry due to detection by active surveillance in farms | RiskUniform (−0.0077277,0.15365) | 0.01533 | 0.1306 | 0.07403 | 0.04811 | 0.01533 | 0.1306 |
P4 (1-P4a) | The probability of HPAI H5N1 prevalence rates in birds due to failure in detection by active surveillance in farm | Â | ||||||