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Table 1 Forecast accuracy comparison of modeling weekly Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome sero-prevalence in Danish swine herds. The out of the sample period is January 2010 to December 2014. The Red SPF herds are tested on a monthly basis for PRRS; the Blue SPF herds are tested at least once a year for PRRS; the Non SPF herds are tested with other frequencies for PRRS

From: Comparison of time-series models for monitoring temporal trends in endemic diseases sero-prevalence: lessons from porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome in Danish swine herds

Root Mean of Squared errors

Model

Red SPF herds

Blue SPF herds

Non SPF herds

DLM (95%CI)

0.061 (0.057–0.066)

0.081 (0.079–0.083)

0.128 (0.125–0.132)

DGLM (95%CI)

0.056 (0.053–0.060)

0.081(0.079–0.083)

0.124 (0.120–0.127)

HM (95%CI)

0.219 (0.204–0.235)

0.081 (0.079–0.083)

0.096 (0.093–0.099)

  1. CI Confidence Intervals
  2. DLM Dynamic Linear Model
  3. DGLM Dynamic Generalized Linear Model
  4. HM Holt‘s linear trend method
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BMC Veterinary Research

ISSN: 1746-6148

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