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Table 1 The input parameters and calculation method for each node in the model

From: Risk analysis of African swine fever in Poland based on spatio-temporal pattern and Latin hypercube sampling, 2014–2017

Notation Definition Parameterization Source Values
P1 Probability of ASF infection in Poland P1 = 1-e(−t × λ) [18] P1 = 0.762
P2 Probability of pig surviving an ASF infection   [28] Pert (0.05, 0.2, 0.8)
P3 Probability of pigs being selected for slaughter P3 = Vs/Vp
Vs Pig slaughter volume (Thousand head)   [29] Pert (1344.1, 1765.3, 2465.8)
Vp Number of fattening pigs (Thousand head)   [29] Uniform (3856.6, 6490.3)
P4 Survival rate of pigs during transportation P4 = 1-P4’
P4’ Mortality of pigs during transportation   [30] Pert (0.00062, 0.00107, 0.00335)
P5 Probability of infected pigs not being detected in the slaughterhouse   [31] Beta (1.34, 34.17)
P6 Probability of selecting pork and pork products carrying ASFV to be exported Beta (α1, α2)
α1 The quantity of potentially infected pork and pork products in Poland α1 = QI+ 1
α2 The quantity of qualified swine produced in Poland α2 = (QT-QI)-1
QT Total production of pork and pork products in Poland   [32] Triang (969,317, 1,955,500, 2,230,071)
QI Total amount of pork and pork products with ASFV QI=NI × Pm × Mp
NI Number of infected pigs NI=Ou × To×Hp
Ou Number of ASF undetected outbreaks before official notification   [31] Pert (1, 1.28, 6)
To Average herd size in Poland To = Nt/Sf
Nt Pig population in Poland   [33] Normal (16,189,857, 2,346,461)
Sf Numbers of pig farms in Poland   [33] Normal (262,690, 45,068)
Hp Intra-herd prevalence of ASF   [31] Pert (0.05, 0.15, 0.32)
Pm Probability ASF infected pig being transformed into meat Pm = P2 × P3 × P4 × P5
Mp Average weight of each pig in Poland(kg)   [32] Uniform (85.9, 89.7)
n Export volume of pork and pork products in Poland (t)   [32] Triang (9633.8, 9777.9, 645,366)
p Probability of ASFV carrying pork and pork products exported from Poland p = P1 × P6
Pr Probability of at least 1 t pork and pork Products carrying ASFV exported from Poland Pr = 1-(1-p) n