# Table 1 The input parameters and calculation method for each node in the model

Notation Definition Parameterization Source Values
P1 Probability of ASF infection in Poland P1 = 1-e(−t × λ)  P1 = 0.762
P2 Probability of pig surviving an ASF infection    Pert (0.05, 0.2, 0.8)
P3 Probability of pigs being selected for slaughter P3 = Vs/Vp
Vs Pig slaughter volume (Thousand head)    Pert (1344.1, 1765.3, 2465.8)
Vp Number of fattening pigs (Thousand head)    Uniform (3856.6, 6490.3)
P4 Survival rate of pigs during transportation P4 = 1-P4’
P4’ Mortality of pigs during transportation    Pert (0.00062, 0.00107, 0.00335)
P5 Probability of infected pigs not being detected in the slaughterhouse    Beta (1.34, 34.17)
P6 Probability of selecting pork and pork products carrying ASFV to be exported Beta (α1, α2)
α1 The quantity of potentially infected pork and pork products in Poland α1 = QI+ 1
α2 The quantity of qualified swine produced in Poland α2 = (QT-QI)-1
QT Total production of pork and pork products in Poland    Triang (969,317, 1,955,500, 2,230,071)
QI Total amount of pork and pork products with ASFV QI=NI × Pm × Mp
NI Number of infected pigs NI=Ou × To×Hp
Ou Number of ASF undetected outbreaks before official notification    Pert (1, 1.28, 6)
To Average herd size in Poland To = Nt/Sf
Nt Pig population in Poland    Normal (16,189,857, 2,346,461)
Sf Numbers of pig farms in Poland    Normal (262,690, 45,068)
Hp Intra-herd prevalence of ASF    Pert (0.05, 0.15, 0.32)
Pm Probability ASF infected pig being transformed into meat Pm = P2 × P3 × P4 × P5
Mp Average weight of each pig in Poland(kg)    Uniform (85.9, 89.7)
n Export volume of pork and pork products in Poland (t)    Triang (9633.8, 9777.9, 645,366)
p Probability of ASFV carrying pork and pork products exported from Poland p = P1 × P6
Pr Probability of at least 1 t pork and pork Products carrying ASFV exported from Poland Pr = 1-(1-p) n 