Epidemiological and economic consequences of purchasing livestock infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis

Table 2 The consequence of a multiple purchases of infected animals

			Number of animals purchased per year
Simulated years	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	99.6	35.2	2.8	3.2	1.4	0.0
2	15.8	2.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	7.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	3.2	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	2.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	0.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	0.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

The probability of disease fadeout (calculated as percentages from 500 simulations) after 1 to 10 simulated years when buying one to six animals per year. When buying more than six animals per year, the probability of infection fadeout was always zero

ISSN: 1746-6148