Epidemiological and economic consequences of purchasing livestock infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis

Table 1 The consequence of a single purchase of infected animals

	Number of animals purchased in the first year
Simulated years	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
1	58	48	41	36	32	27	22	16	17	16
2	68	58	51	47	39	34	29	24	24	21
3	72	62	57	54	44	40	35	27	27	24
4	74	66	59	54	51	42	38	31	31	27
5	78	69	64	57	54	47	43	36	36	32
6	79	70	68	59	57	48	46	38	39	36
7	80	73	70	65	61	51	48	41	41	38
8	80	74	70	67	63	54	51	44	44	42
9	82	76	72	67	64	55	55	46	47	45
10	82	77	73	69	66	56	56	49	49	46

The probability (%) of fadeout after 1 to 10 simulated years when the farmer buys one to ten infected animals in the first year. For instance, in the first year, the probability of fadeout is lower when 10 animals are purchased, than when only one animal is purchased. The probabilities are calculated from 500 simulations

ISSN: 1746-6148