Fig. 2

Boxplot of the resulting herd prevalence from the different scenarios after 10 simulated years for a herd with an initial MAP prevalence of 5.6%. The use of single or multiple suppliers for pregnant heifers are shown. The numbers 1, 5 and 10 represent the number of heifers purchased per year. The risk of introducing infection is given by: random risk = random supplier from the empirical distribution of herd prevalence in Denmark; low risk = 0% to 5%; medium risk = 5% to 15%, and high risk = 15% to 45%. The whiskers show the 90% simulation envelope