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Table 4 Temporal surveillance sensitivity with related confidence in low herd prevalence and in freedom from disease

From: Evaluation of temporal surveillance system sensitivity and freedom from bovine viral diarrhea in Danish dairy herds using scenario tree modelling

PH = 0.2 %

1 PI introduced

 

1 TI introduced

 

ELISA_HRP

TemSSe

PLow

TemSSe

PLow

 blocking_90

64.5 (7.9; 97.3)

72.5 (50.4; 97.2)

64.4 (7.8; 97.3)

72.5 (50.4; 97.2)

 SVANOVIR_90

99.0 (86.9; 99.9)

98.9 (87.7; 99.9)

64.0 (8.0; 97.0)

72.1 (50.4; 96.9)

 blocking_365

98.2 (79.2; 99.8)

97.6 (78.5; 99.8)

65.6 (8.5; 97.4)

68.9 (44.9; 96.7)

 SVANOVIR_365

99.8 (99.3; 99.9)

99.7 (99.1; 99.9)

78.9 (30.5; 98.3)

78.3 (52.0; 97.8)

PH = 0.02 %

1 PI introduced

 

1 TI introduced

 

ELISA_HRP

TemSSe

PFree

TemSSe

PFree

 blocking_90

12.1 (1.0; 36.2)

51.6 (48.2; 59.5)

12.1 (1.0; 36.2)

51.6 (48.2; 59.5)

 SVANOVIR_90

43.7 (22.6; 56.9)

62.4 (54.6; 68.6)

12.0 (1.0; 35.5)

51.5 (48.2; 59.2)

 blocking_365

39.3 (17.8; 55.4)

55.7 (46.3; 64.5)

12.5 (1.1; 36.6)

47.3 (40.0; 55.8)

 SVANOVIR_365

53.5 (46.7; 59.2)

62.3 (55.5; 67.3)

17.7 (4.4; 40.0)

48.6 (41.0; 57.2)

  1. TemSSe Median temporal surveillance system sensitivity, PLow Confidence in low herd prevalence, PFree Confidence in complete freedom from BVD. Estimates are reported as median % (90 % prediction intervals), according to ELISA used (blocking = Danish blocking ELISA, SVANOVIR = SVANOVIR ELISA), and HRP (high risk period of 90 or 365 days) after the introduction of 1 persistently infected (PI) calf or 1 transiently infected (TI) milking cow into 1 (between-herds design prevalence PH = 0.02 %) or 8 (PH = 0.2 %) Danish dairy herd(s)