Table 2 Multivariable mixed logistic regression models for infection with bTB between 2002 and 2008 fitted for the four different models. “-“represents variables that were not significant so not included in that model, “REF” indicates (part of) the reference level., “OR” in the odds ratio and numbers in brackets are the 95% confidence interval

Country

England

1

REF

1

REF

-

-

1

REF

Wales

0.919 (0.86, 0.98)

0.008

0.889 (0.74, 0.89)

<0.001

-

-

1.352 (0.99, 1.84)

0.055

Scotland

0.822 (0.64, 1.05)

0.119

-

-

-

-

3.709 (2.59, 5.31)

<0.001

X coord

x10^-5

1.279 (1.22, 1.34)

<0.001

1.377 (1.28, 1.49)

<0.001

-

-

-

-

Y coord

y10^-5

1.123 (1.05, 1.21)

<0.001

1.179 (1.03, 1.35)

0.016

0.856 (0.83, 0.90)

<0.001

1.125 (0.92, 1.37)

0.241

Testing interval

1

1

REF

-

-

-

-

-

-

2

0.445 (0.42, 0.47)

<0.001

-

-

1

REF

-

-

3

0.212 (0.16, 0.27)

<0.001

-

-

0.455 (0.35, 0.59)

<0.001

-

-

4

0.181 (0.17, 0.19)

<0.001

-

-

-

-

-

-

Herd type

Beef

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

Fatt’

1.221 (1.14, 1.31)

<0.001

1.254 (1.15, 1.37)

<0.001

1.214 (1.03, 1.43)

0.023

1.942 (1.54, 2.45)

<0.001

Suckler

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

Dairy

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

Store

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

Herd size

0 – 10

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

11 – 100

2.059 (1.84, 2.31)

<0.001

2.976 (2.56, 3.46)

<0.001

3.366 (2.43, 4.66)

<0.001

2.306 (1.35, 3.95)

0.002

>100

4.026 (3.59, 4.52)

<0.001

5.712 (4.87, 6.71)

<0.001

7.616 (5.44, 10.6)

<0.001

7.654 (4.57, 12.8)

<0.001

Irish imports

0

1

REF

-

-

-

-

1

REF

>0

1.760 (1.41, 2.19)

<0.001

-

-

-

-

4.005 (2.85, 5.63)

<0.001

Badgers

Count/10

1.060 (1.04, 1.09)

<0.001

1.070 (1.03, 1.11)

<0.001

-

-

-

-

History

No

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

-

-

Yes

1.379 (1.30, 1.46)

<0.001

1.369 (1.28, 1.46)

<0.001

1.750 (1.41, 2.17)

<0.001

-

-

High risk moves

0

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

1

REF

1-10

3.342 (2.95, 3.79)

<0.001

1.410 (1.16, 1.71)

<0.001

1.230 (0.83, 1.83)

0.306

1.678 (1.24, 2.27)

<0.001

>10

7.463 (6.61, 8.43)

<0.001

2.020 (1.66, 2.47)

<0.001

2.261 (1.52, 3.36)

<0.001

8.726 (6.85, 11.1)

<0.001

FMD

No

1

REF

-

-

1

REF

-

-

Yes

1.217 (1.07, 1.38)

0.002

-

-

1.469 (1.11, 1.94)

0.007

-

-

x*y

0.917 (0.90, 0.94)

<0.001

0.903 (0.87, 0.94)

<0.001

-

-

-

-

Area under the ROC

0.896

0.767

0.792

0.912