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Table 2 Input parameters used in the scenario tree model to substantiate freedom from IBR and EBL in Switzerland

From: Using scenario tree modelling for targeted herd sampling to substantiate freedom from disease

Description of input parameter Value Source
Herd-level design prevalence for disease freedom from IBR and EBL (P*H) 0.002 OIE Animal Health Code 2010
Proportions of risk factors for IBR in the cattle farm population (Pr RF )   
Proportion of "animal contacts" (PrAC) 0.401 TVD1
Proportion of "animal movements" (PrAM) 0.286 TVD1
Proportion of "farm close to border" (PrFcB) 0.100 TVD1
Proportion of "high density of herds" (PrhDH) 0.123 TVD1
Proportion of "importation of cattle" (PrIC) 0.002 TVD1
Proportions of risk factors for EBL in the cattle farm population (Pr RF )   
Proportion of "animal movements" (PrAM) 0.286 TVD1
Proportion of "importation of cattle" (PrIC) 0.002 TVD1
Proportion of "common summer pasture" (PrSP) 0.398 TVD1
Relative risks (RR RF ) of risk factors for IBR   
RR of "animal contacts" (RRAC) RiskPert(2; 4; 6) Expert opinion2
RR of "animal movements" (RRAM) RiskPert(2; 4; 6) Expert opinion2
RR of "farm close to border" (RRFcB) RiskPert(2; 4; 6) Expert opinion2
RR of "high density of herds" (RRhDH) RiskPert(1; 2; 3) Expert opinion2
RR of "importation of cattle" (RRIC) RiskPert(2; 4; 6) Expert opinion2
Relative risks (RR RF ) of risk factors for EBL   
RR of "animal movements" (RRAM) RiskPert(1; 2; 3) Expert opinion2
RR of "importation of cattle" (RRIC) RiskPert(1.5; 4; 5) Expert opinion2
RR of "common summer pasture" (RRSP) RiskPert(1; 1.5; 3) Expert opinion2
ELISA test-sensitivities for herd serology (T SensSH )   
TSensSH of IBR-Antibody-ELISA (CHEKIT® Trachitest Serum, IDEXX Laboratories) 0.993 Swiss Reference Laboratory for IBR3
TSensSH of EBL-Antibody-ELISA (CHEKIT® Leucose Serum, IDEXX Laboratories) 0.999 Swiss Reference Laboratory for EBL4
  1. 1Swiss Animal Movement Database (2008)
  2. 2Modified Delphi approach
  3. 3Institute of Virology, University of Zurich
  4. 4Institute of Veterinary Virology, University of Berne