Table 1 Description of baseline model input parameter values and sources. Input values or distributions of parameters used to model the import probability and domestic spread of BoHV-1 in Switzerland between annual serological surveys.
Parameter | Values or distribution as used in @RISK simulation | Reference |
|---|---|---|
Population size | See Table 2 | Swiss animal movement database |
Sample size last survey | See Table 2 | [8] |
Number of herds tested positive | See Table 2 | [8] |
Threshold herd prevalence | 0.1–0.2% a) | 64/432/ECC 2004/78/EC |
Between survey spread factor (BSSF) | = RiskPert(1;1.03;3.96) | derived as explained in the text |
Probability of detection | = RiskBinomial(number of newly infected herds; 0.2) | [7] |
Number and seasonality of animals imports | records per month and country | Swiss Fed. Custom Statistics |
Herd prevalence countries not BoHV-1 free | = RiskUniform(0.1;0.3) | [9, 10] |
Herd prevalence countries BoHV-1 free | = RiskBeta(1;2326) | 64/432/ECC |
Within herd prevalence countries not free | = RiskUniform(0.1;0.5) b) | [11, 12] |
Within herd prevalence countries free | = RiskUniform(0.1;0.9) b) | [13–15] |
Test sensitivity 1 | = RiskUniform(0.87;0.99) | [10, 16, 17] |
Test specificity 1 | = RiskUniform(0.95;1) | |
Isolation facility group size | = 7 | [18] |
Transmission probability | = RiskUniform(0.25;0.35) | expert opinion |
Test sensitivity 2 | = RiskUniform(0.2;0.9175) | [3], expert opinion |
Test specificity 2 | = 1 c) | [3], expert opinion |