# Table 2 p-values for the test to see if shortest and quickest routes are better predictors of transmission risk than Euclidean distance and vice versa for the various regions and different parameter values. p-values below 0.05 are taken to mean a significantly better predictor. The default parameter values are latent period (l) equal to 4 days and sheep and cattle transmissibility parameters equal (T c = T s , only relative values are required), n is the sum of pi,jover all possible transmissions in Equation 1; effectively the number of IPs on their day of infection that are within 10 km of an infectious IP.

p-value
Region Parameter Shortest route better than Eucl. distance Eucl. distance better than Shortest route Quickest route better than Eucl. distance Eucl. distance better than Quickest route n
Devon l = 3 0.55 0.026 0.91 < 10-3 107
l = 4 0.68 0.029 0.93 < 10-3 104
l = 5 0.61 0.043 0.93 < 10-3 103
T s /T c = 10 0.71 0.027 0.92 < 10-3 104
T s /T c = 0.1 0.65 0.027 0.92 < 10-3 104
Cumbria l = 3 > 0.999 < 10-3 > 0.999 < 10-3 572
l = 4 0.999 < 10-3 0.999 < 10-3 562
l = 5 0.998 < 10-3 > 0.999 < 10-3 553
T s /T c = 10 0.998 < 10-3 0.999 < 10-3 562
T s /T c = 0.1 0.998 < 10-3 0.999 < 10-3 565
Dumfries and Galloway l = 3 0.87 0.005 0.93 < 10-3 82
l = 4 0.82 0.006 0.88 < 10-3 78
l = 5 0.82 0.006 0.91 < 10-3 76
T s /T c = 10 0.81 0.005 0.90 < 10-3 78
T s /T c = 0.1 0.85 0.011 0.87 < 10-3 78
Welsh Borders l = 3 0.87 0.003 0.87 < 10-3 97
l = 4 0.88 0.011 0.87 < 10-3 93
l = 5 0.92 0.011 0.92 < 10-3 88
T s /T c = 10 0.88 0.012 0.85 0.001 92
T s /T c = 0.1 0.92 0.008 0.93 < 10-3 95
Settle l = 3 0.95 0.001 0.96 < 10-3 87
l = 4 0.92 < 10-3 0.96 < 10-3 84
l = 5 0.90 0.001 0.89 < 10-3 81
T s /T c = 10 0.92 < 10-3 0.97 < 10-3 84
T s /T c = 0.1 0.91 < 10-3 0.94 < 10-3 84 