From: Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union
Pathway | Parameter | Definition | Source |
---|---|---|---|
L.PIGS &L.PROD | Po | Probability of infection in the country of origin (country o) | Beta(α1, α2) |
α1 = X + 1; α2 = M-(X + 1) | |||
X:number of outbreaks by month[26] | |||
M: number of months considered | |||
Ou | Number of undetected outbreaks before official notification in country o | [9] | |
To | Average herd size in country o | To = No/So | |
No | Pig population in country o | ||
So | Pig establishments in country o | ||
Hp | Intra-herd prevalence | ||
Ps | Probability of an ASF-infected pig surviving infection | [31] | |
L.PIGS | P1s | Probability of selecting an ASF-infected pig from country o in month m | Beta (α1, α2) α1 = NI + 1; α2 = No-(NI + 1) NI = Po x Ou x To x Hp; |
Pt | Probability of survival during transportation | [32] | |
P2S | Probability of a pig surviving | P2S = Ps*Pt | |
Snodm | Imports of live swine (number of pigs) from country of origin (o) to the EU destination country (d) in month m (in the last 5 years). In order to transform Eurostat imports data (in 100 kg) into number of pigs, a standard weight of 100 kg was assumed per pig. | [25] | |
Normal (μ, σ) | |||
Spodm | Probability of an ASF infected animal from country o entering country d in month (m) | Binomial (n, p) | |
n = Snodm | |||
p = P1S x P2S | |||
PfS | Probability of having at least one introduction of ASFV into one EU country (d) from one of country of origin (o) in month m by legal imports of live pigs |
| |
Pm | Probability of a pig being grown for meat production | Normal(Mo/No) | |
L. PRODS | Mo | Number of slaughtered pigs in countries o | [27] (2005/2009) |
PC | kg of meat obtained per slaughtered pig (per 100 kg) | [27] (2000-2009) | |
Co | Annual pig meat production per country (100 kg) | [27] (2005-2008) | |
P1P | Probability of selecting infected ASFV pig meat from country o in month m | P1p: Mi / (Co/12), | |
Mi: Po*Ou*To*Hp*Ps*Pm*PC | |||
P2P | Probability of meat belonging to one of the different types of products considered | [25] (2008-2009) | |
P3P | Probability of ASF virus survival in each meat product type during transport. | ||
pnodm | Imports of each pig meat product type (100 kg weight) from country “o” to EU country “d” in month “m” | [25] (2005-2009) | |
Ppodm | Probabilities of ASF infected pig products of different types (a-c) from country o entering country d in month m | Binomial (n, p) | |
n = pnodm | |||
p = P1p* P2p * P3p | |||
Pfp | Probabilities of having at least one introduction of ASFV into one EU country (d) from one country (o) in month m by legal imports of each pig products type (a-c). |
| |
PTP | Probabilities of having at least one introduction of ASFV into one EU country (d) from one country o in month m by legal imports of any pig product type. |
| |
ILLEGAL | P1I | Probability of release through illegal importation for personal consumption | Sum of weighted risk scores for P3, P4 and P5 |
P3I | Outbound tourism to ASF-affected countries. Holiday or business trips of 1 night or more from EC27 to Africa and Russia, arrivals of non resident visitors at national borders of Georgia | [25], Georgian National Tourism Agency | |
P4I | Inbound tourism from ASF-affected countries: Arrivals to EU27 of non residents from Africa and Russia staying in hotels, etc. | [25] | |
P5 I | Residents (citizens )from ASF-affected countries | [25] | |
P2 I | Probability of release through illegal importation for commercial purposes | Sum of weighted risk scores for P5, P6 and P7 | |
P6I | Price of pork. 2010 annual average price of Grade E carcasses (55-59% lean meat percentage) in euros per 100 kg | European community | |
P7I | Geographic position | Sum of weighted risk scores (P8,P9,P10) | |
P8I | Number of ports and airports | World Port Index 2009; [25] | |
P9I | Distance in km to nearest ASF-affected country (from country border to border of nearest ASF-affected country) | Shapefile of national boundaries | |
P10I | Number of international terrestrial border points with non EU member states | FAO Geonetwork: shapefiles of railways, roads and waterways of the World VMAP) | |
TAF | P1t | Number of potential ASF-contaminated returning trucks. Number of live pigs exported from EU to ASF-affected countries by road | [25] (Nov. 2007-2009)- (ComExt) |
P2t | Number of ways (and consequently, facility) of a truck to arrive by road in an EU country from non EU countries. Number of roads crossing EU national boundaries with non EU states | FAO Geonetwork. Roads of the World | |
P3t | Probability of returning trucks not being properly disinfected | [35] | |
P4t | Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by cargo ships. Inward number of cargo ships from ASF-infected countries to EU ports | [25]-Traditional international trade database access (ComExt); [9] | |
P5t | Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by passenger ships (excluding cruises). Inward number of passenger ships from ASF-infected countries to the EU | [25]-Traditional international trade database access (ComExt); [9] | |
P6t | Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by Short sea shipping (SSS) movements. Ships from ASF-infected countries to the EU | [25]-Traditional international trade database access (ComExt); GIS | |
P7t | Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by cruises. Proportion of cruise ships from ASF-affected areas per country |
| |
CA | Number of cruise ships arriving at EU ports after one stop in ASF-infected areas | Travelocity. http://travel.travelocity.com | |
Cp | Number of cruise passengers arriving at EU ports (Cp) | [25] (ComExt) | |
p | Average number of passengers per cruise ship | Truecruises. http://www.truecruise.com/cruise-ship-database.aspx | |
P8t | Potential contaminated waste introduced by international passenger flights. Commercial passenger flights from ASF-infected countries to EU airports | ||
WB | P1W | Probability of wild boar becoming infected in country o through contact with infected wild boar | P1w = P4w*P5 w |
P2W | Probability of wild boar becoming infected in country o through contact with infected domestic pigs | P2 w = P6 w *P7 w | |
P3W | Probability of infected wild boar crossing national border | P3a w: P8 w *P9 w P3b w: P9 w *P10 w | |
P4W | Wild boar outbreak density in countries o | [9] 2007-2012 | |
P5W | Wild boar population density in countries o | ||
P6W | Density of domestic pig outbreaks in countries o | [9] 2007-2012 | |
P7W | Domestic pig population density in countries o | [36] | |
P8W | Surface of shared wild boar suitable habitat along national borders | Corine land cover | |
P9W | Distance from EU countries to the nearest outbreak (wild boar) | [9] 2007-2012 | |
P10W | Distance from EU countries to the nearest outbreak (domestic pig) | [9] 2007-2012 |