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Table 1 Parameters and sources of data employed in the modular framework for the ASF risk assessment

From: Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union

Pathway

Parameter

Definition

Source

L.PIGS &L.PROD

Po

Probability of infection in the country of origin (country o)

Beta(α1, α2)

α1 = X + 1; α2 = M-(X + 1)

X:number of outbreaks by month[26]

M: number of months considered

Ou

Number of undetected outbreaks before official notification in country o

[9]

To

Average herd size in country o

To = No/So

No

Pig population in country o

[9, 27]

So

Pig establishments in country o

[27, 28]

Hp

Intra-herd prevalence

[29, 30]

Ps

Probability of an ASF-infected pig surviving infection

[31]

L.PIGS

P1s

Probability of selecting an ASF-infected pig from country o in month m

Beta (α1, α2) α1 = NI + 1; α2 = No-(NI + 1) NI = Po x Ou x To x Hp;

Pt

Probability of survival during transportation

[32]

P2S

Probability of a pig surviving

P2S = Ps*Pt

Snodm

Imports of live swine (number of pigs) from country of origin (o) to the EU destination country (d) in month m (in the last 5 years). In order to transform Eurostat imports data (in 100 kg) into number of pigs, a standard weight of 100 kg was assumed per pig.

[25]

Normal (μ, σ)

Spodm

Probability of an ASF infected animal from country o entering country d in month (m)

Binomial (n, p)

n = Snodm

p = P1S x P2S

PfS

Probability of having at least one introduction of ASFV into one EU country (d) from one of country of origin (o) in month m by legal imports of live pigs

Pfs = 1 odm 1 s p odm

Pm

Probability of a pig being grown for meat production

Normal(Mo/No)

L. PRODS

Mo

Number of slaughtered pigs in countries o

[27] (2005/2009)

PC

kg of meat obtained per slaughtered pig (per 100 kg)

[27] (2000-2009)

Co

Annual pig meat production per country (100 kg)

[27] (2005-2008)

P1P

Probability of selecting infected ASFV pig meat from country o in month m

P1p: Mi / (Co/12),

Mi: Po*Ou*To*Hp*Ps*Pm*PC

P2P

Probability of meat belonging to one of the different types of products considered

[25] (2008-2009)

P3P

Probability of ASF virus survival in each meat product type during transport.

[33, 34]

pnodm

Imports of each pig meat product type (100 kg weight) from country “o” to EU country “d” in month “m”

[25] (2005-2009)

Ppodm

Probabilities of ASF infected pig products of different types (a-c) from country o entering country d in month m

Binomial (n, p)

n = pnodm

p = P1p* P2p * P3p

Pfp

Probabilities of having at least one introduction of ASFV into one EU country (d) from one country (o) in month m by legal imports of each pig products type (a-c).

Pfp = 1 odm 1 P p odm

PTP

Probabilities of having at least one introduction of ASFV into one EU country (d) from one country o in month m by legal imports of any pig product type.

PTp = 1 i = a c 1 P f p

ILLEGAL

P1I

Probability of release through illegal importation for personal consumption

Sum of weighted risk scores for P3, P4 and P5

P3I

Outbound tourism to ASF-affected countries. Holiday or business trips of 1 night or more from EC27 to Africa and Russia, arrivals of non resident visitors at national borders of Georgia

[25], Georgian National Tourism Agency

P4I

Inbound tourism from ASF-affected countries: Arrivals to EU27 of non residents from Africa and Russia staying in hotels, etc.

[25]

P5 I

Residents (citizens )from ASF-affected countries

[25]

P2 I

Probability of release through illegal importation for commercial purposes

Sum of weighted risk scores for P5, P6 and P7

P6I

Price of pork. 2010 annual average price of Grade E carcasses (55-59% lean meat percentage) in euros per 100 kg

European community

P7I

Geographic position

Sum of weighted risk scores (P8,P9,P10)

P8I

Number of ports and airports

World Port Index 2009; [25]

P9I

Distance in km to nearest ASF-affected country (from country border to border of nearest ASF-affected country)

Shapefile of national boundaries

P10I

Number of international terrestrial border points with non EU member states

FAO Geonetwork: shapefiles of railways, roads and waterways of the World VMAP)

TAF

P1t

Number of potential ASF-contaminated returning trucks. Number of live pigs exported from EU to ASF-affected countries by road

[25] (Nov. 2007-2009)- (ComExt)

P2t

Number of ways (and consequently, facility) of a truck to arrive by road in an EU country from non EU countries. Number of roads crossing EU national boundaries with non EU states

FAO Geonetwork. Roads of the World

P3t

Probability of returning trucks not being properly disinfected

[35]

P4t

Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by cargo ships. Inward number of cargo ships from ASF-infected countries to EU ports

[25]-Traditional international trade database access (ComExt); [9]

P5t

Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by passenger ships (excluding cruises). Inward number of passenger ships from ASF-infected countries to the EU

[25]-Traditional international trade database access (ComExt); [9]

P6t

Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by Short sea shipping (SSS) movements. Ships from ASF-infected countries to the EU

[25]-Traditional international trade database access (ComExt); GIS

P7t

Potential ASF-contaminated waste introduced by cruises. Proportion of cruise ships from ASF-affected areas per country

P 7 t = CAi Cp / p

CA

Number of cruise ships arriving at EU ports after one stop in ASF-infected areas

Travelocity. http://travel.travelocity.com

Cp

Number of cruise passengers arriving at EU ports (Cp)

[25] (ComExt)

p

Average number of passengers per cruise ship

Truecruises. http://www.truecruise.com/cruise-ship-database.aspx

P8t

Potential contaminated waste introduced by international passenger flights. Commercial passenger flights from ASF-infected countries to EU airports

[25, 9]

WB

P1W

Probability of wild boar becoming infected in country o through contact with infected wild boar

P1w = P4w*P5 w

P2W

Probability of wild boar becoming infected in country o through contact with infected domestic pigs

P2 w = P6 w *P7 w

P3W

Probability of infected wild boar crossing national border

P3a w: P8 w *P9 w P3b w: P9 w *P10 w

P4W

Wild boar outbreak density in countries o

[9] 2007-2012

P5W

Wild boar population density in countries o

[3638]

P6W

Density of domestic pig outbreaks in countries o

[9] 2007-2012

P7W

Domestic pig population density in countries o

[36]

P8W

Surface of shared wild boar suitable habitat along national borders

Corine land cover

P9W

Distance from EU countries to the nearest outbreak (wild boar)

[9] 2007-2012

P10W

Distance from EU countries to the nearest outbreak (domestic pig)

[9] 2007-2012

  1. L.PIGS (Legal imports of pigs), L.PROD (Legal imports of products), ILLEGAL (Illegal imports), TAF (Transport associated fomites) and WB (wild boar).