Fig. 4

Posterior mean (μP) for reported PRRS cases of 124 farms for the last half of 2014. The farms below the horizontal line (threshold) are predicted negative and the one above the horizontal line are predicted positive. The reported positive farms in the second half of 2014 are red whilst the reported negative farms are black. The model prediction accuracy is the sum of the black farms below the threshold and the red farms above the threshold divided by total number of farms (105/124)