Fig. 4

Modeled cumulative incidence based on fitting the IDEA model to three or six epidemic generations assuming a seven day generation time. Squares represent the observed cumulative incidence by generation. The solid line represents the model fit to the entire time series. The dashed lines represent the model fit to only three or six outbreak generations (prior to the outbreak peak). Curves generated from data early in the outbreak are strongly representative of those resulting from fitting to the entire time series