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Table 3 Multivariable random intercept negative binomial models

From: Suitability and limitations of portion-specific abattoir data as part of an early warning system for emerging diseases of swine in Ontario

 

Lungs Pneumonia

Kidneys Nephritis

Variable

IRR

P-value

95% CI

IRR

P-value

95% CI

Year

      

   2001

referent

  

referent

  

   2002

1.10

0.76

0.69-1.98

1.53

0.02

1.06-2.20

   2003

0.96

0.90

0.50-1.83

1.34

0.15

0.90-1.98

   2004

0.28

0.004

0.12-0.66

1.06

0.78

0.70-1.60

   2005

0.23

0.001

0.09-0.56

0.96

0.83

0.63-1.45

   2006

0.11

< 0.001

0.03-0.39

1.28

0.23

0.86-1.92

   2007

0.08

0.001

0.02-0.33

0.99

0.98

0.65-1.53

Agricultural region

      

   Central

referent

  

referent

  

   Eastern

1.16

0.67

0.59-2.32

0.88

0.67

0.48-1.61

   Northern

0.15

0.08

0.02-1.22

0.67

0.51

0.20-2.20

   Southern

0.54

0.04

0.30-0.96

0.06

< 0.001

0.03-0.12

   Western

0.97

0.92

0.53-1.77

0.08

< 0.001

0.04-0.16

Season

      

   Winter

referent

  

referent

  

   Spring

N/A

  

1.08

0.56

0.84-1.39

   Summer

N/A

  

0.98

0.90

0.76-1.28

   Fall

N/A

  

0.93

0.54

0.72-1.19

# Pigs processed/year*

0.50

< 0.001

0.46-0.54

0.99995

< 0.001

0.99995-0.99996

 

Pneumonia

Nephritis

 

IRR

P-value

95% CI

IRR

P-value

95% CI

Year × Agricultural Region

      

2002 × Eastern Ont.

0.32

0.02

0.12-0.82

0.72

0.31

0.38-1.35

2002 × Northern Ont.

0.15

0.08

0.02-1.22

1.23

0.73

0.37-4.14

2002 × Southern Ont.

0.48

0.05

0.23-1.00

1.94

0.08

0.93-4.02

2002 × Western Ont.

0.77

0.49

0.36-1.62

1.02

0.96

0.53-1.96

2003 × Eastern Ont.

0.34

0.04

0.12-0.94

0.43

0.03

0.21-0.91

2003 × Northern Ont.

3.45

0.30

0.33-36.38

1.81

0.34

0.54-6.04

2003 × Southern Ont.

0.28

0.004

0.12-0.67

2.38

0.03

1.12-5.08

2003 × Western Ont.

0.65

0.30

0.29-1.46

1.26

0.50

0.64-2.47

2004 × Eastern Ont.

0.56

0.41

0.14-2.22

0.93

0.85

0.45-1.94

2004 × Northern Ont.*

0.0002

1.00

0.0-0.0009

2.54

0.14

0.75-8.60

2004 × Southern Ont.

0.98

0.97

0.34-2.83

3.23

0.01

1.50-6.95

2004 × Western Ont.

2.48

0.08

0.91-6.77

0.85

0.67

0.39-1.84

2005 × Eastern Ont.

1.11

0.88

0.30-4.03

1.88

0.07

0.95-3.72

2005 × Northern Ont.*

0.0002

1.00

0.0-0.001

0.91

0.90

0.19-4.23

2005 × Southern Ont.

0.59

0.41

0.17-2.06

4.07

< 0.001

1.85-8.93

2005 × Western Ont.

1.61

0.40

0.53-4.89

0.82

0.64

0.36-1.88

2006 × Eastern Ont.

2.06

0.37

0.43-9.90

1.86

0.11

0.86-4.01

2006 × Northern Ont.*

0.0003

1.00

0.0-0.0014

1.19

0.82

0.28-5.02

2006 × Southern Ont.

3.17

0.10

0.81-12.35

2.90

0.01

1.32-6.34

2006 × Western Ont.

3.95

0.05

1.02-15.35

0.81

0.61

0.37-1.79

2007 × Eastern Ont.*

0.0001

1.00

0.0-0.0005

1.80

0.10

0.89-3.66

2007 × Northern Ont.*

0.0004

1.00

0.0-0.0018

2.51

0.21

0.60-10.59

2007 × Southern Ont.

4.54

0.08

0.93-22.21

5.70

< 0.001

2.64-12.32

2007 × Western Ont.

4.64

0.06

0.95-22.68

1.86

0.11

0.86-4.01

Kidneys nephritis model

 

IRR

P-value

95% CI

   

Season × census agricultural region

      

Winter × Central Ont.

referent

     

Spring × Eastern Ont.

1.02

0.92

0.64-1.63

   

Summer × Eastern Ont.

0.81

0.39

0.50-1.31

   

Fall × Eastern Ont.

0.92

0.72

0.58-1.46

   

Spring × Northern Ont.

0.25

0.01

0.09-0.72

   

Summer × Northern Ont.

0.34

0.02

0.13-0.87

   

Fall × Northern Ont.

0.75

0.46

0.35-1.60

   

Spring × Southern Ont.

0.78

0.31

0.48-1.27

   

Summer × Southern Ont.

1.02

0.93

0.63-1.65

   

Fall × Southern Ont.

0.77

0.31

0.47-1.27

   

Spring × Western Ont.

1.65

0.08

0.94-2.90

   

Summer × Western Ont.

1.54

0.15

0.86-2.79

   

Fall × Western Ont.

1.85

0.03

1.05-3.24

   
  1. Modeling the association between lung pneumonia and kidney nephritis condemnation rates in provincial abattoirs in Ontario and year, season, census agricultural region, total pigs processed per year and median quarterly hog stock price, with abattoir as a random effect