Figure 3

Expected risk (probability) of PCVAD in the Ontario study population containing 278 herds based on a generalized additive model with a smooth bivariate term for herd locations as the only covariate ( P _{s(x, y)} = 0.16). The map shows a relatively simple trend with decreasing risk in the western direction. Note that probabilities depicted on isolines should not be interpreted as prevalence or a risk in the entire population, as it was in part influenced by complex data inclusion mechanism.